Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-17 4.656632 5.466710 6.362404 7.424322 8.646994 10.008610 11.637789
2025-08-24 3.319945 4.381873 5.683925 7.389070 9.553487 12.198614 15.664294
2025-08-31 2.496833 3.640724 5.170835 7.346935 10.337952 14.276602 19.822012
2025-09-07 2.057652 3.265878 5.005219 7.654820 11.542834 16.982513 25.096694
2025-09-14 1.679317 2.877328 4.719164 7.700876 12.334059 19.165617 29.873978
2025-09-21 1.393984 2.561480 4.466758 7.724480 13.051082 21.276979 34.742313
2025-09-28 1.172576 2.299478 4.242726 7.735906 13.717680 23.348076 39.735311
2025-10-05 1.101353 2.283227 4.418899 8.423272 15.550415 27.428039 48.295395
2025-10-12 0.981703 2.151344 4.365447 8.693067 16.692323 30.478833 55.460297
2025-10-19 0.881079 2.035564 4.319217 8.960555 17.847800 33.649561 63.111337
2025-10-26 0.770929 1.877530 4.164129 8.993940 18.567335 36.113656 69.745406
2025-11-02 0.649663 1.670265 3.875309 8.718449 18.658612 37.439809 74.445228
2025-11-09 0.533788 1.453773 3.537384 8.305525 18.453985 38.243255 78.360909
2025-11-16 0.458120 1.317379 3.351377 8.187227 18.831600 40.198697 84.658296
2025-11-23 0.396940 1.203635 3.196849 8.113490 19.289801 42.353324 91.543615
2025-11-30 0.367330 1.166897 3.217773 8.440773 20.647667 46.442291 102.631861
2025-12-07 0.326692 1.090010 3.126256 8.487654 21.384206 49.311863 111.484858
2025-12-14 0.290394 1.017075 3.031830 8.512235 22.069508 52.132221 120.476047
2025-12-21 0.258299 0.949093 2.938337 8.524297 22.724054 54.942090 129.681320
2025-12-28 0.257351 0.980095 3.120827 9.275392 25.237487 62.068923 148.783216
2026-01-04 0.239629 0.951656 3.131021 9.570080 26.661297 66.869566 163.154571
2026-01-11 0.223350 0.924318 3.139862 9.862220 28.110662 71.852547 178.326287
2026-01-18 0.201278 0.870816 3.061212 9.898672 28.908027 75.386199 190.491118